SPY Bearish Diagonal Spread Update #2

As a general rule of thumb for diagonals, I don't like to stay in a trade if if I experience more than 12% loss. Since the total risk was $1031 and P/L shows a $142 loss it was time to get out.

Here is a list of the transactions:
3/26 1 SPY 82 Apr/May Call $1.48 credit
3/26 3 SPY 78/81 Apr/May Call $0.53 debit
3/23 1 SPY 82 Apr/May Call $1.46 debit
3/20 3 SPY 78/81 Apr/May Call $0.05 credit

Total loss was $142.

I admit that 3/20 was not the best time to start the trade because there was no indication that bullish trend was reversing. Luckily I had other trades on that worked much better.

SPY Bearish Diagonal Spread Update #1

I had to adjust the trade on Monday after the continued bullish movement. So I have added a 82 calendar to push the breakeven further away. If price continues to trend higher this week, I'll cry UNCLE and just get.

3/23 STO 1 SPY 82 Apr/May Call $1.46

Total max risk is $1031.

SPY Bearish Diagonal Spread

SPY looks like it reached the top of the bullish run. Its time to place a neutral to bearish diagonal. If price settles below $78 on expiration there will be a minimum profit of $15 due to the credit. Potentially the trade can make up to ~$600 if the price settles at $78.

STO 3 SPY 78 April Call $3.70
BTO 3 SPY 81 May Call $3.65
Credit of $.05

Max risk is $885

Adjustment point will be when price reaches $79.5.

Bullish Divergence Update

The CCI divergence came true. The major indexes have been going up for the last 3 days. It seems like the market can't handle this bullish trend without a minor pullback. The SPY is almost at the 30day SMA so that will be next likely target for a pullback.

Bullish Divergence?

SPY is showing a bullish divergence on the CCI indicator. Could this mean that the market will move higher in the weeks to come. Maybe, I think we have reached a temporary bottom and head higher or channel for a few weeks before heading south once again.
The Russell and the Dow are both showing the same divergence. Only time will tell if this divergence is true.