Apple Earnings Calendar Update

Closed out the trade last week for a 9.8% profit. Apple has been
heading north immediately after I started the trade and had to add a
240 calendar. It still seems to have energy to move higher so I exited
it on Thurs. One thing I noticed about this expiration cycle was that
it has been more volatile than past cycles. The ipad release helped
push the stock higher.

3/22 BTO 5 AAPL Apr/May 230 call @ $5.12
4/1 BTO 5 AAPL Apr/May 240 call @ $5.95
4/8 STC 5 AAPL Apr/May 230/240 call @ $12.15

Apple Earnings Double Calendar Exit

Apple has been slowly moving higher during the course of the trade. IV
has moved up 3 points since the start of the trade. (Slightly less
than expected) The strong open was a sign for me to get out this
morning. Don't want to be standing in front of a pregnant elephant.
Got filled yesterday at $10.35 for a $93 profit or 9.9% profit.

Apple Earnings Double Calendar

Its' time for an Apple Calendar!

Earnings are due to be released on Jan 19 which is part of Feb expiration cycle. Volatility usually rises until the day of expiration and dropped dramatically after earnings announcement. Current Feb options have volatility of 36.9%, I expect it to increase to ~42%(or more) the day before earnings.

Since Apple is a big mover a double calendar works best for me. It allows price to move around while allowing time and volatility to work in my favor. From looking at the risk graph it may look like a bad trade with little to no chance for profit however vega is +27. Expected volatility picture shows the likely outcome with 5 points increase in volatility and one week before expiration. Picture shows $212 profit. Profit target for this trade is $150.
Adjustment points are at outer breakeven points at 189 and 212.


BTO AAPL Jan/Feb 190 Put
BTO AAPL Jan/Feb 210 Call
Total Debit $9.42

Original Trade


Expected result one week before expiration

AZO Earnings Calendar

Autozone (AZO) is due to have earnings on 5/26/09. Generally I like to have the earnings in the back month, in this case the June expiration cycle. With that in mind I placed a double calendar on 4/20 to hopefully capture some time decay.

4/20 BTO AZO May/Jun 170 CALL $4.45
4/20 BTO AZO May/Jun 155 CALL $4.15

4/29 STC AZO MAY/JUN 170 CALL $5.35
4/29 STC AZO MAY/JUN 155 CALL $4.40

Total profit = 9.75-8.60= $1.15
ROI = 13.37%

This trade worked out primarily from some good timing. IV in the front month dropped several points since I first placed the trade.

Walmart Calendar

Walmart is a great shopping alternative in the current economy. It should outperform other retailers in the coming months. So lets try a bullish calendar to capture some upward movement.

BTO 3 WMT Mar/Jun 57.5 Call for $.90

The plan is wait till March expiration to buy back the March short and then sell April and then hopefully the May.

ALK followup trade

Alaska Air hit my target projection of $30 twice! The first time was last week then price reversed. Today, it moved $1.78 to close at $29.78. Unfortunately for me, I was out of my calendar on Wednesday for a profit of $.44 on $1.43 risk. If I stayed in until today then my profit could have been $1.10. But a win is a win.
One thing I noticed is the earning is due out the last week of Jan which should have increased the Feb IV. However, IV has stayed very neutral this month. One of the reasons I choose this trade was using the IV increase as a way to profit on the trade.

ALK ascending triangle

ALK(Alaska Air) is showing ascending triangle. The stock has been forming a triangle for almost 2 months. It recent broke out of the triangle and heading upwards. I decided to place a bullish calender to capture any movement.



Placed Jan/Feb 30 Put calendar for $1.43. This trade is mostly speculative trade because it may never reach above $30. $27 was the upper band before the breakout. I may look to remove the trade once it reaches 25% profit.

Rocketship GS

Goldmansach has shot up quite a bit this week. It was around 180 earlier this week and then now its 192. From a candlestick aspect an anbandoned baby pattern is starting to form. Meaning that if mondays price gaps lower and stay lower its a bearish situtation. However if it continues to trend higher than I will need to adjust my position inorder to stay with this earning play. So far i'm down $94 on a $950 risk.



Existing postition




With 195 put calendar if price continues to rise