Apple Earnings Calendar Update

Closed out the trade last week for a 9.8% profit. Apple has been
heading north immediately after I started the trade and had to add a
240 calendar. It still seems to have energy to move higher so I exited
it on Thurs. One thing I noticed about this expiration cycle was that
it has been more volatile than past cycles. The ipad release helped
push the stock higher.

3/22 BTO 5 AAPL Apr/May 230 call @ $5.12
4/1 BTO 5 AAPL Apr/May 240 call @ $5.95
4/8 STC 5 AAPL Apr/May 230/240 call @ $12.15

Apple Earnings Calendar

Placed an Apple earnings calendar this week. Stock price was around ~226 earlier this week and got a feeling that the stock might continue on its bullish run so I picked a 230 strike. I want to get ~15% before exiting. That should happen sometime next week.

BTO 5 AAPL Apr/May 230 call $5.12

Apple Earnings Double Calendar Exit

Apple has been slowly moving higher during the course of the trade. IV
has moved up 3 points since the start of the trade. (Slightly less
than expected) The strong open was a sign for me to get out this
morning. Don't want to be standing in front of a pregnant elephant.
Got filled yesterday at $10.35 for a $93 profit or 9.9% profit.

Apple Earnings Double Calendar

Its' time for an Apple Calendar!

Earnings are due to be released on Jan 19 which is part of Feb expiration cycle. Volatility usually rises until the day of expiration and dropped dramatically after earnings announcement. Current Feb options have volatility of 36.9%, I expect it to increase to ~42%(or more) the day before earnings.

Since Apple is a big mover a double calendar works best for me. It allows price to move around while allowing time and volatility to work in my favor. From looking at the risk graph it may look like a bad trade with little to no chance for profit however vega is +27. Expected volatility picture shows the likely outcome with 5 points increase in volatility and one week before expiration. Picture shows $212 profit. Profit target for this trade is $150.
Adjustment points are at outer breakeven points at 189 and 212.


BTO AAPL Jan/Feb 190 Put
BTO AAPL Jan/Feb 210 Call
Total Debit $9.42

Original Trade


Expected result one week before expiration

AZO Earnings Calendar

Autozone (AZO) is due to have earnings on 5/26/09. Generally I like to have the earnings in the back month, in this case the June expiration cycle. With that in mind I placed a double calendar on 4/20 to hopefully capture some time decay.

4/20 BTO AZO May/Jun 170 CALL $4.45
4/20 BTO AZO May/Jun 155 CALL $4.15

4/29 STC AZO MAY/JUN 170 CALL $5.35
4/29 STC AZO MAY/JUN 155 CALL $4.40

Total profit = 9.75-8.60= $1.15
ROI = 13.37%

This trade worked out primarily from some good timing. IV in the front month dropped several points since I first placed the trade.

AZO Earnings Calendar

Earnings on AutoZone is due out on March 3. Volatility will stay inflated or slightly trend higher the next few weeks, which is perfect for a calendar. My first profit target is 15% and I expect to be completely out of the short position by Feb 17. Breakeven is roughly $130 and $141. If price reaches these points, I will adjust the position.

BTO 2 AZO Feb/Mar 135 Call for $4.85

AAPL Trade Results

Apple did not turn out like I expected. The stock price began to move aggressively the first week of January. It actually touched my short strike and I was worried it might go further so I decide to close my put side (for a loss). The very next day, price retraced and never looked back. Overall, I still made a profit. But I would have made more if I kept the put side in place.

Trade log:
1/13 STC Jan/Feb 95/100 CALL $2.74
1/6 STC Jan/Feb 75/70 PUT $.90

12/30 BTO Jan/Feb 75/70 PUT $1.46
12/29 BTO Jan/Feb 95/100 CALL $1.65

Profit of $.53. Not too bad for a trade that went wrong.

AAPL Earnings Double Diagonal

It's earnings season for Apple once again. Normally the options volatility will increase in the option chain that coincides with the earnings date. Earnings is set to be released on Jan 22.
I decided to place a double diagonal to capture the increase in volatility. The chart looks like I will make only a few dollars at expiration but I have a 9 vega. Meaning that for every point increase in IV, I should see a $9 profit. I expect to see about ~10 point increase in IV by Jan expiration.

Trade
STO JAN 95 CALL
BTO FEB 100 CALL
$1.65

STO JAN 75 PUT
BTO FEB 70 PUT
$1.46

Rocketship GS

Goldmansach has shot up quite a bit this week. It was around 180 earlier this week and then now its 192. From a candlestick aspect an anbandoned baby pattern is starting to form. Meaning that if mondays price gaps lower and stay lower its a bearish situtation. However if it continues to trend higher than I will need to adjust my position inorder to stay with this earning play. So far i'm down $94 on a $950 risk.



Existing postition




With 195 put calendar if price continues to rise

GS earnings calendar

Goldmansachs is having earnings June 2. So it a good candidate for a calendar spread. The June 2 earnings event will increase the June contracts while allowing the May contracts to decay quickly.

BTO May/June 180 Put for $4.55
Risk to reward will be 1:1
Breakeven are $170 and $191